9th Grade Success

"If students have a successful ninth grade year, they know that they can succeed, and that they belong in high school, and those positive mindsets will help them face up to the challenges they face later on."

~ Elaine M. Allensworth, Director, University of Chicago Consortium on School Research

At the age of thirteen, a tumultuous stage of adolescent development, students make their most important academic transition—beginning high school. This moment is filled with social, academic, and emotional challenges that represent a huge risk and opportunity for students on their education journey.

The first year of high school is one of the most critical periods in a student’s educational journey, serving as a pivotal predictor of future success. Research from the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research underscores the significance of the ninth-grade year. Their “Freshman On-Track” indicator shows that students who earn at least five full course credits and fail no more than one core subject in their first year of high school are 3.5 times more likely to graduate on time. Conversely, students who fall off track during ninth grade often struggle to recover, leading to higher dropout rates and diminished future opportunities. This is the moment when academic habits, attendance patterns, and engagement either take root—or falter.

"Research is showing us that being on track [in 9th grade] is more predictive of graduating from high school than factors like mobility or economic status or gender or race. As a matter of fact, it's more predictive than all of those variables combined." 

~ Krystal Payne, Executive Director, UChicago Network for College Success

There are myriad factors that contribute to the risks during this period, but academic and empirical research has identified one key factor that carries outsize importance: algebra readiness and success. Algebra (and eventually Algebra II) are gateway subjects that lay the foundation for higher-order thinking and advanced coursework. Algebra is not just a graduation and college-entrance requirement—it is a predictor of career opportunities, particularly in STEM fields, where math proficiency correlates with significantly higher earnings.

Photo by Allison Shelley for EDUimages

Yet many students enter high school unprepared for the demands of algebra due to gaps in foundational math skills, struggling with addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, fractions, percentages and other core concepts of numeracy. Too many students fail to earn a passing grade in Algebra I or II, putting them on a loop for remediation that greatly reduces their likelihood of graduating high school A-G Compliant (the courses required to be admitted to a California State University or University of California college). Failing to earn a grade of C or higher in these courses renders a high school graduate ineligible to apply to CSU or UC schools, often requiring them to start at a community college or forgo higher education altogether.

By prioritizing ninth-grade success, we can hope to transform educational trajectories, increasing high school graduation rates and unlocking lifelong and earning opportunities for students. To address this challenge, we seek solutions based on interesting or bold ideas, or approaches that leverage technology, and we seek solutions that have the potential to create impact at scale. Promising approaches in this space include:

• Evidence-based curriculums that have been proven elsewhere and are ready to be adopted in our region.
• Interventions such as tutoring and mentoring delivered in person or remotely and at lower cost points.
• Capacity building and professional learning for school leaders and teachers to strengthen classroom instruction.
• Academic support organizations that have a track record of helping school systems transform their approaches to teaching mathematics.
• Technology solutions that support students, including AI interventions and curricular supports.